Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death, 2017 to 2040

Date:

Friday, 30 November 2018

Time:

12.00pm – 1.00pm

Venue:

Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health
National University of Singapore,
Tutorial Room 4, Level 9 , Tahir Foundation Building (MD1),
12 Science Drive 2, Singapore 117549

Synopsis:

Understanding potential trajectories in health and drivers of health is crucial to guiding long-term investments and policy implementation. Recently, a new study done by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington on modelling life expectancy and cause of death forecasts was published in The Lancet. This study provides a novel approach to forecasting cause specific mortality, life expectancy, and years of life lost (YLLs) from 2017 to 2040 in 195 countries and territories under the reference and alternative future scenarios. The model takes into account the relationships between risk factors and health outcomes for 79 independent drivers of health. The lecture will provide an overview of the model and dive deeper into the results for Singapore.

About the speaker:

Kyle Foreman, PhD, MPH, is the Director of Data Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. In this role, he oversees the development of new scientific software to analyze and visualize IHME’s large collection of global health data. In addition, he leads the forecasting research team, which is extending the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project to include future estimates of the world’s health. Dr Foreman first started working at IHME in 2008 as a Post-Bachelor Fellow, during which time he created the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) and crafted IHME’s first data visualizations, including GBD Compare. He then left to pursue a PhD in biostatistics and epidemiology from Imperial College London, where he focused on developing new statistical models for forecasting cause-specific mortality in the United States. After building a startup that uses novel machine learning algorithms to provide medical diagnoses, Dr Foreman returned to IHME in 2014 to head up the Scientific Computing and Forecasting teams. Dr Foreman earned a PhD from Imperial College London, an MPH from the University of Washington, and a Bachelor’s in psychology and neuroscience from Harvard University.