Probabilistic Projection of the Sex Ratio at Birth and Missing Female Births by States and Union Territories in India

Date:

Friday, 20 December 2019

Time:

12.30pm – 1.30pm

Venue:

Seminar Room 2, Level 8
Tahir Foundation Building (MD1)
Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health
National University of Singapore
12 Science Drive 2, S(117549)

Synopsis:

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; defined as the ratio of male to female births) in India has been reported imbalanced since the 1970s. Previous studies have shown a great variation in the SRB across geographic locations till 2016. As one of the most populous countries with great heterogeneity across states and union territories, it is crucial to produce probabilistic projection in the SRB for India on state level for the purpose of population projection and policy planning. We implement a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to project SRB in India by state. We generate SRB probabilistic projection from 2016 to 2030 by states and union territories in India. Our analysis take into account the three main factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion and resulted in imbalances SRB: intensity of son preference, accessibility to technology, and fertility squeeze.

About the speaker:

Dr Chao received her PhD in 2017 from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore. Her PhD dissertation is “Bayesian Methods for Estimating Global Health Indicators”. She has been actively collaborating with United Nations Population Division and UNICEF since 2012. She develops complex statistical models for sparse and noisy data for population indicators (eg sex ratio at birth, under-5 child mortality rate) across countries over time. She has several publications in PNAS, and Lancet Global Health. Her personal webpage is here. Her CV is here.