Hybrid Simulation Modelling of Networks of Heterogeneous Care Homes and the Inter-Facility Spread of COVID-19 through Staff Sharing

Date:

15 October 2025, Wednesday

Time:

2pm SGT (Time Zone Conversion)

Platform:

Zoom 

Synopsis:

Although system dynamics and agent-based modelling have individually served as effective tools for understanding Covid-19 dynamics, combining these methods in a hybrid simulation model can address questions difficult to study with single approaches. We developed an integrated hybrid model to examine Covid-19 spread across care homes via bank/agency staff and evaluate intervention effectiveness.

Our results show residents in care homes using bank/agency staff had significantly higher infection risk than those not using such staff (Relative Risk 2.65,95% CI 2.57−2.72). Bank/agency staff working across multiple homes had higher infection risk than permanent staff (RR 1.55,95%CI 1.52−1.58). Resident infection risk was negatively correlated with bank/agency staff adherence to weekly PCR testing. Bank/agency staff impact was greatest in care homes with lower intra-facility transmission risks, higher staff-to-resident ratios, and smaller size. Care home bubbles showed no or limited impact on Covid-19 spread.

About the speaker:

Dr Le Khanh Ngan Nguyen
Chancellor’s Fellow in Management Science
University of Strathclyde