Over 5,000 people here would have been infected with COVID-19 by now, if not for Singapore’s tough measures such as contact tracing and quarantines. As of 19 March, the total number of cases in Singapore is 345.
“Right now, cases are sufficiently low, so the Government is able to put a lot of effort into contact tracing,” said Associate Professor Alex Cook, Vice Dean (Research) and Domain Leader (Biostatistics and Modelling).
This, together with other measures such as border checks, has managed to reduce the transmission rate of the disease from the global average of one person spreading it to two to 2.5 other people, to a patient spreading it to just one other person here.
“If we stop our measures, it will go on to the trajectories of other countries. It is going to grow, no way we are going to stop that,” he said. “The success is dependent on both the Government and the people acting socially responsible.”
This means people observing precautions and the Government continuing with its measures such as contact tracing.
A socially responsible population — where people who are sick self-isolate — can do a lot to reduce transmission and will have a big impact on the infection rate.
— Assoc Prof Alex Cook
As for stricter measures such as a lockdown, which many countries have already implemented, when it is implemented is important.
“Stringent measures must be timed for best effect because they put stress on people and the economy,” said Assoc Prof Cook.
National Development Minister Lawrence Wong, who co-chairs the multi-ministry COVID-19 task force, said a lockdown in Singapore remains an option, but it will not be in place yet.
According to Dean, Professor Teo Yik Ying, lockdowns serve two purposes:
“They prevent further importations, especially as COVID-19 is now spreading in many countries and it becomes a real challenge to enforce travel advisories or bans that are specific to individual countries.
And it is socially responsible to prevent exporting to other countries, and to contain any further spread within the country.”
Prof Teo added that a lockdown cannot be a country’s only strategy and must co-exist with other measures like active contact tracing and mandatory social distancing.
“Judiciously applying a lockdown as well as timing it carefully can indeed be effective,” he said, citing China’s success.
Assoc Prof Cook added that a two-week lockdown is not enough as the spread will start again after the shutdown ends. This is because people can still pass the virus to family members and others, who may get sick after the lockdown is lifted — and start the spread all over again.
Media coverage:
- Without tough steps, S’pore might have 5,000 cases by now, The Straits Times (Print), 19 March 2020
- Coronavirus: Without tough steps, Singapore might have 5,000 cases by now, The Straits Times (Premium), 19 March 2020
- Lockdowns need to be timed well: Experts, The Straits Times (Print), 19 March 2020
- Lockdowns need to be timed well: Experts, The Straits Times (Premium), 19 March 2020