COVID-19: Three areas of transmission to keep an eye on

The ‘circuit breaker’, Singapore’s tightest measures so far to curb the spread of the virus, started on 7 April and will last for at least four weeks.

It calls for Singaporeans to stay at home as far as possible, and to keep contact with others to a minimum and within the immediate household. The measures include the closure of all schools and non-essential workplaces.

Senior Health Correspondent at The Straits Times, Ms Salma Khalik wrote that whether the ‘circuit breaker’ is extended depends on three main areas of viral transmission: imported cases, community transmission and foreign worker dormitories.

With increasingly stringent measures to ring-fence returning residents from spreading the virus, the number of new daily imported cases has fallen to single digits. Still, vigilance is necessary.

The number of new daily local cases remains high, and the latest measures are aimed at reducing local transmission by minimising contact within the community. In order to lower the number of infections, the transmission rate of the virus needs to be reduced to below one.

Vice Dean (Research), Associate Professor Alex Cook hopes the ‘circuit breaker’ measures can reduce the spread of the virus from 2.5 to just 0.5, which means two infected people go on to infect one other person instead of five others.

“Then we should see the number of cases per day drop from 120 to 60 to 30 to 15 a day over the next few weeks,” he said.

Based on what has happened in other countries, Associate Professor Hsu Li Yang, Programme Leader (Infectious Diseases), said that the latest measures should be effective, that is “if the majority of people truly stay home and do not abuse the restrictions”.

As for the third area of concern in foreign worker dormitories, Assoc Prof Hsu said the spread in the dorms will “potentially be no different from what we have seen on quarantined cruise ships” since people are confined within the facilities.

Steps are in place to separate groups of foreign workers to try to prevent further spread of the virus among them.

In another interview for Eco-Business, Assoc Prof Hsu said that all cases — even individuals without symptoms — should ideally be identified and isolated. Those who have had close contact with the individuals should ideally be quarantined separately as well.

“Otherwise, the dorms and especially the toilet facilities should be thoroughly and regularly cleaned. The workers should quickly be educated on the importance of proper handwashing, and be provided masks for use within the dormitories,” he added.

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