A combination of isolation and quarantine measures, workplace distancing and school closures was found to be the most effective in curbing the spread of COVID-19 in a simulated model of Singapore’s population.
And at this early stage, quarantine and workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closures.
This was presented in a paper titled ‘Interventions to mitigate early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore: a modelling study’ published in The Lancet on 23 March 2020.
The study analysed different combinations of measures and their potential outcomes in a simulated model set in Singapore.
The authors explained that workplace distancing should be prioritised over school closure because of the higher withdrawal rates of symptomatic children from school as compared to symptomatic adults from work — meaning adults were more likely to report for work when they were unwell.
Associate Professor Jeremy Lim, Co-Director of Global Health, commented that such behaviour may be associated with Singaporeans’ mentality of showing commitment by spending longer hours at the workplace.
“Schools, from a very early stage, have also been practising social distancing so there were limited opportunities for the infection to spread among them,” said Assoc Prof Lim.
Vice Dean (Research), Associate Professor Alex Cook, who co-authored the paper, said:
“The results of this study provide policymakers in Singapore and other countries with evidence to begin the implementation of enhanced outbreak control measures that could mitigate or reduce local transmission rates if deployed effectively and in a timely manner.”
The paper was co-authored by SSHSPH researchers Assoc Prof Cook, Assistant Professor Clarence Tam, Dr Borame Dickens, Dr Park Minah, Ms Sun Yinxiaohe, Mr Sun Haoyang, Mr Lim Jue Tao and Mr Joel Koo.
View the full paper here:
Media coverage:
- Three-pronged distancing most effective at controlling Covid-19: Singapore study, The New York Times, 24 March 2020
- Coronavirus: Singapore should encourage working from home over closing schools, report says, South China Morning Post, 25 March 2020
- It’s official: Lancet study says social distancing most-effective way to stop coronavirus from spreading, The Economic Times, 25 March 2020
- Social distancing ‘most effective’ at slowing coronavirus pandemic, CGTN, 25 March 2020
- 国大数据模拟研究：隔离停课在家办公三管齐下病例能大减, Lianhe Zaobao, 27 March 2020
- Coronavirus: Workplace distancing more effective than school closures, says study, The Straits Times, 29 March 2020
- Modeling The Impact of Singapore’s ‘Circuit Breaker’, Asian Scientist Magazine, 16 April 2020